Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-23 3.296031 3.967352 4.718679 5.618615 6.663816 7.835931 9.246152
2025-03-30 2.223167 3.038539 4.051322 5.388636 7.093251 9.177358 11.900073
2025-04-06 1.655041 2.523935 3.702849 5.389828 7.706924 10.738206 14.956236
2025-04-13 1.266172 2.131157 3.400376 5.347589 8.196899 12.139934 17.916591
2025-04-20 1.074624 1.968743 3.370700 5.649623 9.160884 14.243903 21.999976
2025-04-27 0.907107 1.799806 3.288507 5.839656 9.956856 16.159798 25.968101
2025-05-04 0.792678 1.691555 3.276258 6.122307 10.905683 18.365417 30.526326
2025-05-11 0.654698 1.506896 3.097556 6.093074 11.335781 19.795162 34.003061
2025-05-18 0.520371 1.295839 2.830745 5.863478 11.390501 20.613831 36.563515
2025-05-25 0.408415 1.102024 2.558385 5.576171 11.297908 21.161958 38.703388
2025-06-01 0.343343 0.995312 2.437436 5.552021 11.661502 22.489612 42.205239
2025-06-08 0.294412 0.914105 2.354069 5.586588 12.129711 24.024034 46.150642
2025-06-15 0.248280 0.829300 2.251221 5.574021 12.520472 25.478230 50.112053
2025-06-22 0.196151 0.712493 2.052525 5.327653 12.422887 26.037493 52.537797
2025-06-29 0.166049 0.649404 1.969490 5.322420 12.809128 27.520236 56.724343
2025-07-06 0.139216 0.587361 1.876226 5.278365 13.105870 28.849904 60.711534
2025-07-13 0.129744 0.579629 1.924346 5.576164 14.164097 31.732933 67.784889
2025-07-20 0.117185 0.557088 1.927599 5.763743 14.996297 34.223216 74.255057
2025-07-27 0.108839 0.547407 1.965524 6.043097 16.059134 37.246163 81.922669
2025-08-03 0.092738 0.501701 1.888501 6.014151 16.411634 38.839017 86.883402
2025-08-10 0.074483 0.439065 1.745550 5.787128 16.274122 39.398378 89.821205
2025-08-17 0.058418 0.377810 1.591506 5.503075 15.964672 39.562404 91.960114
2025-08-24 0.049775 0.347281 1.532545 5.479198 16.289800 41.112292 97.014993